Tactical Analysis

I wanted to write this essay some time ago but there was some information I didn't want to divulge because it would have compromised Israel's military operations. I just realized that Israel has already divulged this information with what is called saber rattling in order to warn Iran. Therefore, it is alright for me to provide you with this tactical analysis.

Weapons Analysis

First, we have to do a weapons analysis because Israel's strategies and tactics will be built around the weapons she has in her inventory. We can't know exactly all the weapons she has but there are key conventional weapons we know she has or does not have. I am absolutely amazed that none of the so called Western experts have done a weapons analysis but speculate blindly assuming she can do things with conventional weapons she can't do.

We do know some of the more critical weapons Israel has and does not have from all the saber rattling she has been doing to warn Iran. For example, it was made public knowledge during the Bush administration that Israel did not have the conventional heavy duty bunker buster bombs required to destroy the extra hardened targets which are part of Iran's nuclear program and that Bush and Obama have both refused to sell Israel those weapons in order to keep Israel from attacking Iran on her own thinking that Israel would not dare nuke Iran to prevent Iran from nuking Israel. They have simple mindedly believed that Israel will just sit there and let Iran nuke Israel before Israel will use nukes. Yeah right. I find it amazing what the West believes about Israel. The experts are about as clue less about Israel as they are about Islam because the Western experts keep judging both of these entities based on what the West wants these entities to do and not on what the entities want or need to do.

We do know that, if Israel did have the conventional heavy duty bunker buster bombs required to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, Israel would have waved them in Iran's face with a little saber rattling to warn Iran because she has done so with much more sensitive conventional weapons such as her submarine fleet, aircraft, and other conventional weapons. Therefore, it is safe to assume that Israel does not have those conventional weapons which can do the required job and the only weapons she could possibly have which can do the job would be nuclear weapons.

Even if Israel did have the heavy duty bunker buster bombs, it would be impractical and even impossible for her to use them effectively. If you listen to the experts, they tell you it would take wave after wave of attacks with even these conventional weapons to get the job done. Israel isn't going to fly over Iran once or twice, drop a few bombs, and everything will be dust.

This conventional weapons attack would require anywhere from a minimum of two weeks to more than two months access to Iran with her aircraft and a fleet of ships and subs capable of delivering the variety of conventional weapons required to do the job. Israel simply doesn't have that luxury which is why she is trying to get the US to do the job because the US does have that luxury. If Israel can get access to Iran with her war planes, she will be limited to a few waves of attacks at most meaning the conventional weapons won't be effective anyway.

Then there is the matter of her being attacked by Hizbullah, Syria, Hamas, and Fatah after she starts her attack against Iran. Just think about it and Israel simply cannot afford to have her planes outside of Israel on an attack of just one day, much less for weeks or months after she has started her attack against Iran. She MUST have those planes in Israel to help fight the coming four front war or she will quickly lose that war because gaining and keeping air superiority will be an absolute requirement.

For example, Israel lost her air superiority in the Yom Kipur War of 1973 and was losing the ground war until the US helped her regain her air superiority. It was only after Israel regained her air superiority that she was able to turn the war around and win it and that was only a two front war. In a four front war, air superiority will be even more critical, especially since Syria has an air force.

The very simple fact is that, with the coming four front war, Israel MUST keep her planes at home and simply doesn't have the luxury of using them in even one attack much less in waves of attacks after the four front war has begun.

Even if she did use her planes for an attack, she would be forced to use nukes to get the job done with just one or two attacks. For example, with conventional weapons, the destruction of even the most powerful bombs is quite limited when compared to same size nukes. Using the same projectile, with conventional weapons, the damage would be limited to a much smaller area than with nuclear weapons. Let's say you drop a 2,000 bomb which will destroy about half a dozen or so city blocks verses a medium tactical nuke of just 10k which would destroy everything within one mile of ground zero. It would easily take hundreds of the best tactical weapons to do the same damage as one 10k nuke and Israel certainly has a range of both tactical and strategic nukes ranging from less than 10k to several megatons which could easily flatten a city the size of Albuquerque, New Mexico or Tucson, Arizona.

It is easy to see that, without the ability to stage wave after wave of attacks using conventional weapons, it is required that Israel use nukes against certain targets and will have the luxury of using conventional weapons against other targets. The experts are right that Israel can't do the job with just conventional weapons which is why she must use nukes. This is why she has worked so hard to delay her having to do the job while trying to get the US to do the job. It should be obvious that she doesn't want to use the nukes but you can bet she will if it is absolutely necessary.

Therefore, it is only logical to rule out an attack against Iran using just conventional weapons. Israel will be forced to use a combination of conventional and nuclear weapons against Iran to prevent Iran from nuking Israel. I am amazed that the Western experts don't get this.

The basic critical weapon systems Israel has to use in this coming war include but are not limited to nuclear armed continental ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, her airplane fleet, her small but potent navy, and her powerful army. The question is how will Israel use these weapon systems in an attack against Iran knowing she will also have to fight a four front war at the same time?

Tactical Analysis

To answer this, we must break the war down into three basic parts. 1) The four front war, 2) the nuclear continental ballistic missile (CBM) attack against Iran, and 3) the attack against Iran's air defenses to permit Israel's nukes free passage to their targets.

If Israel launches her CBM's first, it will create a series of strategic and tactical problems. First, that many CBM missiles will either light up the night sky almost as much as the sun or leave a large number of very visible vapor contrails leading into space both of which will be visible from Syria to the Sinai Desert and well into Jordan. Iran's allies in the area will be able to easily send her a warning that the missiles are on the way with important knowledge about exactly when the missiles were launched and begin their attack against Israel immediately. This will deny Israel any kind of element of surprise or a preemptive attack.

It is important to understand that Israel MUST stage a preemptive attack against the ground forces on her boarders to decrease their ability to cause damage against Israel when they do attack, to put these enemy forces off balance and keep them off balance so Israel will have a better chance of maintaining the offensive and control, and establish combat momentum. Therefore, it is only logical that Israel MUST attack these four enemy forces first and by surprise before these four enemy forces can attack Israel, then, while these four forces are running for cover and not able to effectively watch the skies for anything other than incoming munitions, Israel will launch her CBM attack against Iran. Israel will need the confusion of war to mask her CBM attack against Iran to gain any element of surprise as to exactly when those missiles were launched and should arrive in Iran.

Then you have to understand that Israel has to take out Iran's air defenses just before the incoming nuclear warheads arrive so Iran doesn't have time to reorganize the remaining air defenses to stop any of the incoming nukes. Timing will be very critical in this coming war.

Therefore, I would expect Israel to start this war with a preemptive attack against the four enemy forces of Hizbullah, Syria, Hamas, and Fatah using her air force and army to create the offensive control required to win the war with a minimum of damage to Israel and use the confusion of war to mask her attack against Iran. While Israel's enemies are running for cover and there is a large amount of munitions exploding with large numbers of jet planes lighting up the skies and leaving vapor contrails to cover the obvious signs of the CBM's, I expect Israel to launch her nuclear CBM attack against Iran. Shortly before those nuclear warheads reach the airspace of Iran and are within range of Iran's air defenses, I expect a number of Israeli subs to quietly float to launching depth and send a barrage of both conventional and nuclear armed cruise missiles against Iran's air defenses creating huge holes in those air defenses which the incoming CBM's can easily descend through to their targets. These subs will also launch against other targets such as key military targets which would either pose a threat to the subs or future attacks against Israel, terrorists camps, weapons factories, and such strategical and tactical targets before exiting the Persian Gulf to begin their journey home to Israel. From that point on the main emphasis of the war will be the conventional war between Israel and her four enemies, Hizbullah, Syria, Hamas, and Fatah.

In a nut shell, that is the way I would expect the coming war to develop. Of course, it will be far more complex than that.

Pray long, pray hard, pray often!!!

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